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20 reason that house price drops necessarily do not have room a group of things
From;  Author:Stand originally
 

Nearly two years, whether to put in as one falls of controversy of house property foamy about China, unable to decide which is right, and estate price rises continuously however. Go up after all drop, who says should look above all. If house property business says to go up, that is equal to did not say, because king mother-in-law sells melon,say melon impossibly to want to cheapen. There is a house in some hands, frying a room even, or it is the person that does not lack money to buy a house, no matter be economist or what person, not quite authentic also, because of them or pays no attention to house price to go up, because buy a room to be opposite their be nothing difficult, there perhaps is a house in the hand, the thing is done not have to be being stolen after waiting for house price to rise very much happy, even some of scholar perhaps is holding the rice bowl of estate business in both hands, how can you call tall room value? Should look next say so that have a reason, whether to have a basis. No matter who is told, should look have without the truth, is not to look to fail to meet each other to be scolded with him idea, because sincere advice often is of be unpleasant to hear. And it is true that the truth falls to be able to prove more the more, crammer is touched broken. Him unknown to public, also do not represent whose increase, saying word is objective, have public opinion oneself:

One, the price is decided by value, suffer effect of supply demand relations at the same time.

The value of Shanghai house is how many bad judgement after all, but the case that sees Japan, japan because person much ground is little, think Japanese house should go up especially greatly around the country so, the result is when highest peak, tokyo and all round the net asset value that the academic price of 3 areas exceeds value of land of American whole country and all company that appear on the market in new York stock exchange, the palace price of Japanese the emperor of Japan exceeds a California. In such atmosphere, the person is unavoidable and enthusiastic, lose due reason. Be afraid so because the land cost of Shanghai is high,cannot think the value of Shanghai house should be as high as 10000 yuan / square metre above, because the price of land does not represent value.

2, before a few years, because housing allocation money is changed, former many people buy property right house with very low price from the unit, sell at high price again piece, produce effect of a wealth, buy ability to increase so, have the demand that improves housing condition again, and the last few years of this part purchasing power is being released centrally in, but this kind of low buys public house, high price sold the good work that give to had been gone forever, so once this part purchasing power is released end, the impetus to estate market can disappear suddenly, the house price that stand high above the masses is met weightlessness.

3, that China old lady worked hard all one's life, accumulated enough money to buy a house eventually, do not have there's still time to enjoy however die, and American old lady early occupy fine house, the story that pays off all rooms to borrow before die is extensive to circulate, the room is borrowed now buying a house is commonner phenomenon, the room borrows the high grade capital fund that becomes a bank. But room of Bank of China of the last few years lends amount a few years when rise considerably, be China lowers interest continuously, still shift pressure a few years when drop ceaselessly. Present interest rate is reforming and opening since of lowest, a year period saving interest rate has 2.25% only, and the room borrows interest rate not to pass many a little bit 5% , but the 20 China in coming for years are average a year period saving interest rate is 4% the left and right sides, by present benefit difference calculates, average room borrows interest rate to be 7% the left and right sides, and the United States comes a few years average housing room borrows interest rate to be 8-9% , if the room borrows interest rate to rise 7% , still can so much person is fond of a room to borrow buy a house? Because still shift pressure,be afraid much before room borrows the person that buys a house is too big and be immersed in financial lair. And alive bound each country, not contemporaneous, total meeting is rate of inflation of prep above of bank deposit interest rate, and present China is contrary however, this is abnormal originally, interest rate goes up to prices sooner or later over, and China has begun those who come 10 years to be added first now ceased. Such, have the housing purchasing power of the financial lever that house of persistent new bank of have the aid of borrows again unlikely in the near future. 1998-2002 year individual housing room is borrowed year all increase rate is amounted to 112.8% , this kind of growth cannot last for certain.
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